How Often Is Financial Times Right?
Financial Times: 37.5% hit rate over 3,149 checks, against 39.4% by chance for the same calls in the same markets. Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance.
37.5 %
Hit rate
39.4 %
Chance
-1.9 pts
Vs. chance
3,149
Checked reports
The record by horizon
The interval is the range the edge would most likely fall in if the measurement were repeated (95 %). The verdict already corrects for testing many sources at once (Holm correction): one interval missing zero does not by itself make that source distinguishable from chance.
| Horizon | Checked reports | Days | Hit rate | Chance | Vs. chance (95 % interval) | Detectable from | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All horizons | 3,149 | 172 | 37.5% | 39.4% | −1.9 pts(−3.5 to −0.2) | ±2.4 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 1 d | 1,125 | 172 | 38.7% | 39.1% | −0.5 pts(−3.2 to +2.2) | ±3.8 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 3 d | 1,016 | 171 | 34.7% | 39.6% | −4.8 pts(−7.3 to −2.3) | ±3.6 pts | Worse than chance |
| 7 d | 1,008 | 167 | 38.9% | 39.6% | −0.7 pts(−4.9 to +3.5) | ±6.0 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
Method source-record-v2, registered and never edited. Read the method. Are you a named source and think a number is wrong, or want to reply? Write to info@aiamond.com; corrections are listed in the change log.
About Financial Times
Financial Times: Editorial news, English. AIamond has analysed 1,783 of its articles; they gave 3,149 checks from the first tradable price (each article is checked at up to three horizons).
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Our Methodology
AI classifies each article's tone as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A source's hit rate is compared with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, so covering calm or busy markets earns nothing. Each difference comes with a 95 % interval; checks close in time are resampled together in blocks of 7 or 14 days, because they share market moves. A verdict needs at least 300 checks and must hold after correcting for the number of sources tested (Holm). This answers "did the market move that way?": a hit rate, not a return. AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.