Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance

How Often Is wallstreet-online Nachrichten Right?

wallstreet-online Nachrichten: 36.8% hit rate over 1,181 checks, against 38.3% by chance for the same calls in the same markets. Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance.

36.8 %

Hit rate

38.3 %

Chance

-1.5 pts

Vs. chance

1,181

Checked reports

The record by horizon

The interval is the range the edge would most likely fall in if the measurement were repeated (95 %). The verdict already corrects for testing many sources at once (Holm correction): one interval missing zero does not by itself make that source distinguishable from chance.

Horizon	Checked reports	Days	Hit rate	Chance	Vs. chance (95 % interval)	Detectable from	Verdict
All horizons	1,181	72	36.8%	38.3%	−1.5 pts(−3.6 to +0.6)	±3.0 pts	Not distinguishable from chance
1 d	411	72	37.2%	37.2%	+0.1 pts(−5.3 to +5.4)	±7.6 pts	Not distinguishable from chance
3 d	402	69	36.6%	38.4%	−1.8 pts(−7.0 to +3.3)	±7.3 pts	Not distinguishable from chance
7 d	368	66	36.4%	40.5%	−4.1 pts(−10.2 to +2.1)	±8.8 pts	Not distinguishable from chance

Method source-record-v2, registered and never edited. Read the method. Are you a named source and think a number is wrong, or want to reply? Write to info@aiamond.com; corrections are listed in the change log.

About wallstreet-online Nachrichten

wallstreet-online Nachrichten: Other (under review), Deutsch. AIamond has analysed 651 of its articles; they gave 1,181 checks from the first tradable price (each article is checked at up to three horizons).

DeutschThe feed we read

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How often the news was right

Each source’s hit rate, compared with chance

Frequently Asked Questions

How does AIamond measure source reliability?▼

AI classifies the tone of each article as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication, we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A raw hit rate mostly reflects which markets a source covers, so we compare it with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, give a 95 % interval (resampling whole days) and correct for testing many sources at once (Holm). The method is registered with its SHA-256 and never edited; a change is a new version, listed in the change log.

Can you rely on wallstreet-online Nachrichten to call the market?▼

wallstreet-online Nachrichten was right 36.8% of the time over 1,181 checks; chance for the same calls in the same markets is 38.3%. Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance. Across all sources we track, the tone of headlines has so far not called the next move better than chance – which is why AIamond shows the news picture, not forecasts.

How many news sources does AIamond track?▼

We read news sources whose rights record admits them: official feeds of publishers, no aggregators, press-release wires or user posts. The current list with every source's numbers is on this page.

How often is the reliability data updated?▼

Price checks run daily; the record on this page is recomputed once a day from the stored checks.

Our Methodology

AI classifies each article's tone as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A source's hit rate is compared with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, so covering calm or busy markets earns nothing. Each difference comes with a 95 % interval; checks close in time are resampled together in blocks of 7 or 14 days, because they share market moves. A verdict needs at least 300 checks and must hold after correcting for the number of sources tested (Holm). This answers "did the market move that way?": a hit rate, not a return. AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.

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