How Often Is CNBC Right?
CNBC: 38.6% hit rate over 3,910 checks, against 36.9% by chance for the same calls in the same markets. Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance.
38.6 %
Hit rate
36.9 %
Chance
+1.7 pts
Vs. chance
3,910
Checked reports
The record by horizon
The interval is the range the edge would most likely fall in if the measurement were repeated (95 %). The verdict already corrects for testing many sources at once (Holm correction): one interval missing zero does not by itself make that source distinguishable from chance.
| Horizon | Checked reports | Days | Hit rate | Chance | Vs. chance (95 % interval) | Detectable from | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All horizons | 3,910 | 219 | 38.6% | 36.9% | +1.7 pts(−1.1 to +4.5) | ±4.0 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 1 d | 1,318 | 219 | 39.3% | 36.3% | +3.0 pts(−0.2 to +6.1) | ±4.5 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 3 d | 1,309 | 217 | 38.5% | 37.6% | +0.9 pts(−2.5 to +4.3) | ±4.8 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 7 d | 1,283 | 213 | 38.0% | 36.7% | +1.3 pts(−2.1 to +4.7) | ±4.8 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
Method source-record-v2, registered and never edited. Read the method. Are you a named source and think a number is wrong, or want to reply? Write to info@aiamond.com; corrections are listed in the change log.
About CNBC
CNBC: Editorial news, English. AIamond has analysed 1,938 of its articles; they gave 3,910 checks from the first tradable price (each article is checked at up to three horizons).
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Each source’s hit rate, compared with chance
Frequently Asked Questions
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Our Methodology
AI classifies each article's tone as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A source's hit rate is compared with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, so covering calm or busy markets earns nothing. Each difference comes with a 95 % interval; checks close in time are resampled together in blocks of 7 or 14 days, because they share market moves. A verdict needs at least 300 checks and must hold after correcting for the number of sources tested (Holm). This answers "did the market move that way?": a hit rate, not a return. AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.