How Often Is Tagesschau Right?
Tagesschau: 33.2% hit rate over 940 checks, against 33.7% by chance for the same calls in the same markets. Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance.
33.2 %
Hit rate
33.7 %
Chance
-0.5 pts
Vs. chance
940
Checked reports
The record by horizon
The interval is the range the edge would most likely fall in if the measurement were repeated (95 %). The verdict already corrects for testing many sources at once (Holm correction): one interval missing zero does not by itself make that source distinguishable from chance.
| Horizon | Checked reports | Days | Hit rate | Chance | Vs. chance (95 % interval) | Detectable from | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All horizons | 940 | 182 | 33.2% | 33.7% | −0.5 pts(−4.3 to +3.2) | ±5.3 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 1 d | 316 | 182 | 33.2% | 33.6% | −0.4 pts(−5.3 to +4.6) | ±7.0 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 3 d | 314 | 181 | 34.4% | 33.1% | +1.3 pts(−4.6 to +7.2) | ±8.4 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 7 d | 310 | 178 | 31.9% | 34.3% | −2.3 pts(−7.4 to +2.7) | ±7.3 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
Method source-record-v2, registered and never edited. Read the method. Are you a named source and think a number is wrong, or want to reply? Write to info@aiamond.com; corrections are listed in the change log.
About Tagesschau
Tagesschau: Editorial news, Deutsch. AIamond has analysed 374 of its articles; they gave 940 checks from the first tradable price (each article is checked at up to three horizons).
Recent reports
| Title | Hit rate by market | Trend | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marktbericht: DAX fällt vor US-Midterms wohl zurück | DAX | ||
| Marktbericht: DAX fällt vor US-Midterms wohl zurück | DAX | ||
| Marktbericht: DAX dürfte mit Gewinnen in den November starten | DAX | ||
| Marktbericht: DAX dürfte mit Gewinnen in den November starten | DAX | ||
| Marktbericht: Zweifel am KI-Boom wachsen | NASDAQ | ||
| Marktbericht: Zweifel am KI-Boom wachsen | NASDAQ | ||
| Marktbericht: Kann der DAX die 26.000 verteidigen? | DAX | ||
| Marktbericht: Kann der DAX die 26.000 verteidigen? | DAX | ||
| Marktbericht: DAX dürfte vor EZB-Zinsentscheid leicht zulegen | DAX | ||
| Marktbericht: DAX dürfte vor EZB-Zinsentscheid leicht zulegen | DAX |
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Each source’s hit rate, compared with chance
Frequently Asked Questions
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Our Methodology
AI classifies each article's tone as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A source's hit rate is compared with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, so covering calm or busy markets earns nothing. Each difference comes with a 95 % interval; checks close in time are resampled together in blocks of 7 or 14 days, because they share market moves. A verdict needs at least 300 checks and must hold after correcting for the number of sources tested (Holm). This answers "did the market move that way?": a hit rate, not a return. AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.