How Often Is CNBC Right?
CNBC: 38.6% hit rate over 3,868 checks, against 36.9% by chance for the same calls in the same markets. Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance.
38.6 %
Hit rate
36.9 %
Chance
+1.7 pts
Vs. chance
3,868
Checked reports
The record by horizon
The interval is the range the edge would most likely fall in if the measurement were repeated (95 %). The verdict already corrects for testing many sources at once (Holm correction): one interval missing zero does not by itself make that source distinguishable from chance.
| Horizon | Checked reports | Days | Hit rate | Chance | Vs. chance (95 % interval) | Detectable from | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All horizons | 3,868 | 217 | 38.7% | 36.9% | +1.7 pts(−1.1 to +4.6) | ±4.0 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 1 d | 1,305 | 217 | 39.2% | 36.4% | +2.8 pts(−0.3 to +5.9) | ±4.5 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 3 d | 1,291 | 214 | 38.7% | 37.6% | +1.2 pts(−2.2 to +4.5) | ±4.8 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 7 d | 1,272 | 211 | 38.1% | 36.7% | +1.3 pts(−2.0 to +4.6) | ±4.7 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
Method source-record-v2, registered and never edited. Read the method. Are you a named source and think a number is wrong, or want to reply? Write to info@aiamond.com; corrections are listed in the change log.
About CNBC
CNBC: Editorial news, English. AIamond has analysed 1,917 of its articles; they gave 3,868 checks from the first tradable price (each article is checked at up to three horizons).
Recent reports
| Title | Hit rate by market | Trend | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| India as an AI hedge? The country's stocks could see robust inflows as markets globally tank | Indian stocks | ||
| Oil prices could spike as U.S. action on Iran nears: Rapidan Energy | Oil | ||
| Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session | USA | ||
| The rotation out of tech is becoming a risk for the broader market | technology stocks (Tech) | ||
| Barkin sees interest rate hikes ahead, but at a gradual pace | USA | ||
| Semiconductor stocks are sliding. This one is a buy, BMO says | technology stocks (Tech) | ||
| What the Democratic midterms sweep changes for U.S.-China relations | global markets | ||
| A 'demand decade' ahead for energy? BP, Baker Hughes CEOs weigh the investment outlook | Oil | ||
| Qualcomm stock drops 6% on weak earnings forecast as memory shortage weighs on smartphone sales | technology stocks (Tech) | ||
| Democrats may go after data centers. That's not a reason to dump all your AI stocks | technology stocks (Tech) |
See today's news picture — not a forecast
A short, free daily e-mail with the most relevant market news and which way the coverage leans, with sources.
Get Free AI Market Insights
The news picture for your markets, read by AI. Free, no credit card required.
AI-Analysed Market Trends
Browse the analysed trends for free
Your Own Dashboard
Watchlists and the News Picture, whenever you check
How often the news was right
Each source’s hit rate, compared with chance
Frequently Asked Questions
How does AIamond measure source reliability?▼
Can you rely on CNBC to call the market?▼
How many news sources does AIamond track?▼
How often is the reliability data updated?▼
Our Methodology
AI classifies each article's tone as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A source's hit rate is compared with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, so covering calm or busy markets earns nothing. Each difference comes with a 95 % interval; checks close in time are resampled together in blocks of 7 or 14 days, because they share market moves. A verdict needs at least 300 checks and must hold after correcting for the number of sources tested (Holm). This answers "did the market move that way?": a hit rate, not a return. AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.