How Often Is CNBC Technology Right?
CNBC Technology: 43.1% hit rate over 585 checks, against 38.5% by chance for the same calls in the same markets. Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance.
43.1 %
Hit rate
38.5 %
Chance
+4.6 pts
Vs. chance
585
Checked reports
The record by horizon
The interval is the range the edge would most likely fall in if the measurement were repeated (95 %). The verdict already corrects for testing many sources at once (Holm correction): one interval missing zero does not by itself make that source distinguishable from chance.
| Horizon | Checked reports | Days | Hit rate | Chance | Vs. chance (95 % interval) | Detectable from | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All horizons | 585 | 118 | 43.1% | 38.5% | +4.6 pts(−0.4 to +9.6) | ±7.1 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 1 d | 201 | 118 | — | — | — | — | Too few data |
| 3 d | 196 | 116 | — | — | — | — | Too few data |
| 7 d | 188 | 112 | — | — | — | — | Too few data |
Method source-record-v2, registered and never edited. Read the method. Are you a named source and think a number is wrong, or want to reply? Write to info@aiamond.com; corrections are listed in the change log.
About CNBC Technology
CNBC Technology: Editorial news, English. AIamond has analysed 329 of its articles; they gave 585 checks from the first tradable price (each article is checked at up to three horizons).
Recent reports
| Title | Hit rate by market | Trend | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Cramer says the AI sell-off isn't over, but it isn't another dot-com crash | technology stocks (Tech) | ||
| Democratic sweep puts crypto on defensive in Washington | cryptocurrencies (Crypto) | ||
| How the midterms could fuel the K-shaped AI trade | technology stocks (Tech) | ||
| Jim Cramer warns investors may be reading too much into Wall Street's post-election rally | USA | ||
| Jim Cramer says this bank stock is a buy after its post-election pullback | USA | ||
| Jim Cramer sees signs of life in tech stocks — but not from the usual winners | technology stocks (Tech) | ||
| Jim Cramer sees signs of life in tech stocks — but not from the usual winners | technology stocks (Tech) | ||
| Jim Cramer says lower oil prices are giving stocks a boost. Can it last? | USA | ||
| Jim Cramer says lower oil prices are giving stocks a boost. Can it last? | USA | ||
| Stocks started the week with promise but ended in despair. Our take on the big reversal | NASDAQ |
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How often the news was right
Each source’s hit rate, compared with chance
Frequently Asked Questions
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Our Methodology
AI classifies each article's tone as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A source's hit rate is compared with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, so covering calm or busy markets earns nothing. Each difference comes with a 95 % interval; checks close in time are resampled together in blocks of 7 or 14 days, because they share market moves. A verdict needs at least 300 checks and must hold after correcting for the number of sources tested (Holm). This answers "did the market move that way?": a hit rate, not a return. AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.