How Often Is U.Today Right?
U.Today: 44.8% hit rate over 1,746 checks, against 41% by chance for the same calls in the same markets. Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance.
44.8 %
Hit rate
41 %
Chance
+3.8 pts
Vs. chance
1,746
Checked reports
The record by horizon
The interval is the range the edge would most likely fall in if the measurement were repeated (95 %). The verdict already corrects for testing many sources at once (Holm correction): one interval missing zero does not by itself make that source distinguishable from chance.
| Horizon | Checked reports | Days | Hit rate | Chance | Vs. chance (95 % interval) | Detectable from | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All horizons | 1,746 | 223 | 44.8% | 41.0% | +3.8 pts(+0.3 to +7.2) | ±4.9 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 1 d | 584 | 223 | 44.0% | 41.2% | +2.9 pts(−1.4 to +7.1) | ±6.1 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 3 d | 584 | 223 | 44.4% | 41.2% | +3.1 pts(−2.2 to +8.5) | ±7.7 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 7 d | 578 | 219 | 46.0% | 41.0% | +5.0 pts(+0.5 to +9.5) | ±6.4 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
Method source-record-v2, registered and never edited. Read the method. Are you a named source and think a number is wrong, or want to reply? Write to info@aiamond.com; corrections are listed in the change log.
About U.Today
U.Today: Crypto editorial, English. AIamond has analysed 947 of its articles; they gave 1,746 checks from the first tradable price (each article is checked at up to three horizons).
Recent reports
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|---|---|---|---|
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Our Methodology
AI classifies each article's tone as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A source's hit rate is compared with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, so covering calm or busy markets earns nothing. Each difference comes with a 95 % interval; checks close in time are resampled together in blocks of 7 or 14 days, because they share market moves. A verdict needs at least 300 checks and must hold after correcting for the number of sources tested (Holm). This answers "did the market move that way?": a hit rate, not a return. AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.