How Often Is Investors Business Daily Right?
Investors Business Daily: 36.7% hit rate over 597 checks, against 35.9% by chance for the same calls in the same markets. Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance.
36.7 %
Hit rate
35.9 %
Chance
+0.8 pts
Vs. chance
597
Checked reports
The record by horizon
The interval is the range the edge would most likely fall in if the measurement were repeated (95 %). The verdict already corrects for testing many sources at once (Holm correction): one interval missing zero does not by itself make that source distinguishable from chance.
| Horizon | Checked reports | Days | Hit rate | Chance | Vs. chance (95 % interval) | Detectable from | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All horizons | 597 | 70 | 36.7% | 35.9% | +0.8 pts(−3.3 to +4.9) | ±5.8 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 1 d | 204 | 70 | — | — | — | — | Too few data |
| 3 d | 201 | 68 | — | — | — | — | Too few data |
| 7 d | 192 | 66 | — | — | — | — | Too few data |
Method source-record-v2, registered and never edited. Read the method. Are you a named source and think a number is wrong, or want to reply? Write to info@aiamond.com; corrections are listed in the change log.
About Investors Business Daily
Investors Business Daily: Specialist press, English. AIamond has analysed 402 of its articles; they gave 597 checks from the first tradable price (each article is checked at up to three horizons).
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Each source’s hit rate, compared with chance
Frequently Asked Questions
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Our Methodology
AI classifies each article's tone as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A source's hit rate is compared with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, so covering calm or busy markets earns nothing. Each difference comes with a 95 % interval; checks close in time are resampled together in blocks of 7 or 14 days, because they share market moves. A verdict needs at least 300 checks and must hold after correcting for the number of sources tested (Holm). This answers "did the market move that way?": a hit rate, not a return. AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.