How Often Is FXStreet Right?
FXStreet: 36.4% hit rate over 11,412 checks, against 35.7% by chance for the same calls in the same markets. Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance.
36.4 %
Hit rate
35.7 %
Chance
+0.7 pts
Vs. chance
11,412
Checked reports
The record by horizon
The interval is the range the edge would most likely fall in if the measurement were repeated (95 %). The verdict already corrects for testing many sources at once (Holm correction): one interval missing zero does not by itself make that source distinguishable from chance.
| Horizon | Checked reports | Days | Hit rate | Chance | Vs. chance (95 % interval) | Detectable from | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All horizons | 11,412 | 151 | 36.4% | 35.7% | +0.7 pts(−0.8 to +2.1) | ±2.1 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 1 d | 3,812 | 151 | 36.5% | 35.8% | +0.7 pts(−1.1 to +2.4) | ±2.5 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 3 d | 3,800 | 151 | 37.2% | 36.1% | +1.1 pts(−2.1 to +4.3) | ±4.6 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 7 d | 3,800 | 151 | 35.5% | 35.3% | +0.2 pts(−1.2 to +1.6) | ±2.0 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
Method source-record-v2, registered and never edited. Read the method. Are you a named source and think a number is wrong, or want to reply? Write to info@aiamond.com; corrections are listed in the change log.
About FXStreet
FXStreet: Specialist press, English. AIamond has analysed 6,057 of its articles; they gave 11,412 checks from the first tradable price (each article is checked at up to three horizons).
Recent reports
| Title | Hit rate by market | Trend | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Softens to near 178.50, retains bearish bias despite oversold RSI | EUR/JPY | ||
| EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Softens to near 178.50, retains bearish bias despite oversold RSI | EUR/JPY | ||
| EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Softens to near 178.50, retains bearish bias despite oversold RSI | EUR/JPY | ||
| GBP/USD Price Forecast: Strengthens above 1.3550, upside bias intact while holding above 100-day SMA | GBP/USD | ||
| GBP/USD Price Forecast: Strengthens above 1.3550, upside bias intact while holding above 100-day SMA | GBP/USD | ||
| GBP/USD Price Forecast: Strengthens above 1.3550, upside bias intact while holding above 100-day SMA | GBP/USD | ||
| Brent approaching USD 100/bbl | Oil | ||
| Brent approaching USD 100/bbl | Oil | ||
| Brent approaching USD 100/bbl | Oil | ||
| British Pound dips to 207.50 as Japanese Yen rallies, unfazed by Oil prices | GBP/USD |
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Each source’s hit rate, compared with chance
Frequently Asked Questions
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Our Methodology
AI classifies each article's tone as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A source's hit rate is compared with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, so covering calm or busy markets earns nothing. Each difference comes with a 95 % interval; checks close in time are resampled together in blocks of 7 or 14 days, because they share market moves. A verdict needs at least 300 checks and must hold after correcting for the number of sources tested (Holm). This answers "did the market move that way?": a hit rate, not a return. AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.