How Often Is Decrypt Right?
Decrypt: 36.6% hit rate over 927 checks, against 39% by chance for the same calls in the same markets. Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance.
36.6 %
Hit rate
39 %
Chance
-2.4 pts
Vs. chance
927
Checked reports
The record by horizon
The interval is the range the edge would most likely fall in if the measurement were repeated (95 %). The verdict already corrects for testing many sources at once (Holm correction): one interval missing zero does not by itself make that source distinguishable from chance.
| Horizon | Checked reports | Days | Hit rate | Chance | Vs. chance (95 % interval) | Detectable from | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All horizons | 927 | 153 | 36.6% | 39.0% | −2.4 pts(−6.7 to +1.8) | ±6.0 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 1 d | 310 | 153 | 39.7% | 38.8% | +0.9 pts(−4.4 to +6.1) | ±7.5 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 3 d | 309 | 152 | 33.0% | 39.0% | −5.9 pts(−11.9 to +0.0) | ±8.5 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 7 d | 308 | 151 | 37.0% | 39.2% | −2.2 pts(−7.7 to +3.4) | ±7.9 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
Method source-record-v2, registered and never edited. Read the method. Are you a named source and think a number is wrong, or want to reply? Write to info@aiamond.com; corrections are listed in the change log.
About Decrypt
Decrypt: Crypto editorial, English. AIamond has analysed 500 of its articles; they gave 927 checks from the first tradable price (each article is checked at up to three horizons).
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Frequently Asked Questions
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Our Methodology
AI classifies each article's tone as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A source's hit rate is compared with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, so covering calm or busy markets earns nothing. Each difference comes with a 95 % interval; checks close in time are resampled together in blocks of 7 or 14 days, because they share market moves. A verdict needs at least 300 checks and must hold after correcting for the number of sources tested (Holm). This answers "did the market move that way?": a hit rate, not a return. AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.