How Often Is CryptoPotato Right?
CryptoPotato: 35% hit rate over 2,177 checks, against 37.1% by chance for the same calls in the same markets. Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance.
35 %
Hit rate
37.1 %
Chance
-2.2 pts
Vs. chance
2,177
Checked reports
The record by horizon
The interval is the range the edge would most likely fall in if the measurement were repeated (95 %). The verdict already corrects for testing many sources at once (Holm correction): one interval missing zero does not by itself make that source distinguishable from chance.
| Horizon | Checked reports | Days | Hit rate | Chance | Vs. chance (95 % interval) | Detectable from | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All horizons | 2,177 | 236 | 35.0% | 37.1% | −2.2 pts(−5.6 to +1.2) | ±4.9 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 1 d | 734 | 236 | 35.2% | 37.2% | −2.1 pts(−6.1 to +2.0) | ±5.8 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 3 d | 727 | 234 | 34.3% | 37.0% | −2.8 pts(−7.3 to +1.8) | ±6.5 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 7 d | 716 | 230 | 35.5% | 37.3% | −1.9 pts(−5.3 to +1.7) | ±5.0 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
Method source-record-v2, registered and never edited. Read the method. Are you a named source and think a number is wrong, or want to reply? Write to info@aiamond.com; corrections are listed in the change log.
About CryptoPotato
CryptoPotato: Crypto editorial, English. AIamond has analysed 923 of its articles; they gave 2,177 checks from the first tradable price (each article is checked at up to three horizons).
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Frequently Asked Questions
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Our Methodology
AI classifies each article's tone as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A source's hit rate is compared with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, so covering calm or busy markets earns nothing. Each difference comes with a 95 % interval; checks close in time are resampled together in blocks of 7 or 14 days, because they share market moves. A verdict needs at least 300 checks and must hold after correcting for the number of sources tested (Holm). This answers "did the market move that way?": a hit rate, not a return. AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.