How Often Is CoinDesk Right?
CoinDesk: 37.3% hit rate over 1,425 checks, against 38.6% by chance for the same calls in the same markets. Verdict: Not distinguishable from chance.
37.3 %
Hit rate
38.6 %
Chance
-1.3 pts
Vs. chance
1,425
Checked reports
The record by horizon
The interval is the range the edge would most likely fall in if the measurement were repeated (95 %). The verdict already corrects for testing many sources at once (Holm correction): one interval missing zero does not by itself make that source distinguishable from chance.
| Horizon | Checked reports | Days | Hit rate | Chance | Vs. chance (95 % interval) | Detectable from | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All horizons | 1,425 | 167 | 37.3% | 38.6% | −1.3 pts(−4.9 to +2.3) | ±5.2 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 1 d | 476 | 167 | 40.3% | 39.0% | +1.4 pts(−4.1 to +6.9) | ±7.8 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 3 d | 476 | 167 | 35.9% | 38.2% | −2.3 pts(−8.0 to +3.4) | ±8.1 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
| 7 d | 473 | 166 | 35.5% | 38.2% | −2.7 pts(−9.3 to +3.9) | ±9.4 pts | Not distinguishable from chance |
Method source-record-v2, registered and never edited. Read the method. Are you a named source and think a number is wrong, or want to reply? Write to info@aiamond.com; corrections are listed in the change log.
About CoinDesk
CoinDesk: Crypto editorial, English. AIamond has analysed 748 of its articles; they gave 1,425 checks from the first tradable price (each article is checked at up to three horizons).
Recent reports
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Frequently Asked Questions
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Our Methodology
AI classifies each article's tone as up, down or sideways for the market it covers. From the first price a reader could trade after publication we check the move after 1, 3 and 7 days. A source's hit rate is compared with chance for the same calls and outcomes within each market, so covering calm or busy markets earns nothing. Each difference comes with a 95 % interval; checks close in time are resampled together in blocks of 7 or 14 days, because they share market moves. A verdict needs at least 300 checks and must hold after correcting for the number of sources tested (Holm). This answers "did the market move that way?": a hit rate, not a return. AIamond makes no forecasts of its own.